Change is in the air

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Hello and welcome to the working week.

Here in London, autumn has been very vibrant with a plethora of balmy sunny days encouraging people to step out into the streets and parks carpeted with golden leaves. But change is coming. Wednesday is the first day of winter in the countries of the northern hemisphere, according to the weather calendar.

The seasons aren’t the only things that will change. The next seven days will produce important moments for several countries.

Barbados officially becomes a republic on Tuesday. The ceremony officially ends Queen Elizabeth’s period as constitutional monarch, formulated when Barbados gained independence in the 1960s after three centuries as a British colony.

Her Majesty will not be present – due to the reduction in overseas travel rather than diplomatic reasons – Prince Charles will therefore be present as her representative. Barbados will remain part of the Commonwealth.

Elsewhere The Gambia is holding its presidential election, there is a by-election in London – perhaps providing an indication of the public mood after several missteps by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson – and on a lighter note, the Germany embraces winter with the annual Stollenfest.

December 1 is a key date for UK government policy changes. The declining rate for universal credit payments – the amount withdrawn for every pound someone earns – will drop from 63 pence to 55 pence on Wednesday. The move was announced by Chancellor Rishi Sunak after slashing the £ 20 increase in payments made at the start of the pandemic, a move that has been heavily criticized.

There are also a few notable Financial Times events to mention. On Wednesday, the winner of the 17th FT and McKinsey Business Book of the Year will be unveiled at a ceremony in London. You can see the short list of titles chosen by the jury by clicking here.

The FT’s annual Global Banking Summit is also taking place this week, from numerous locations, to discuss the future of the industry after the pandemic. Click here to register your spot.

One of the constants of this week of change is my interest in your perspective on this newsletter – email me at [email protected]

Economic data

Statisticians are busy at the end and start of every calendar month, not just every quarter. Amid the deluge of reports, this week will be an opportunity to compare the state of major economies through data from the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index, U.S. employment figures and data on consumer confidence, inflation reports for the euro area and individual European countries as well as industrial production figures for Japan and South Korea.

Also beware of a rush for Turkish data – inflation, a third-quarter gross domestic product figure and the country’s trade balance – which should get a lot of attention given last week’s turmoil.

The schedule of events is also loaded with the various Opec meetings, the publication of the Fed’s Beige Book and the testimony of newly appointed Jay Powell on the Cares Act Relief Bill and the latest OECD Economic Outlook report. .

Companies

Another season is coming to an end: that of quarterly corporate reports. There are only a few revenue updates over the next seven days – mostly Toronto-Dominion Bank and easyJet. It has been a difficult pandemic for budget airlines, but easyJet’s revenue will have been aided by the easing of UK cross-border travel restrictions to Europe.

Main economic and corporate reports

Here’s a more comprehensive list of what to expect in terms of corporate reports and economic data this week.

On Monday

  • Euro zone, consumer confidence data

  • Italy, monthly producer price index (PPI) figures

  • Germany, consumer price index (CPI) flash data

  • Japan, industrial production figures and monthly employment rate

  • UK Bank of England releases data on consumer credit and mortgages

Tuesday

  • Canada, monthly GDP

  • China, Caixin manufactures purchasing managers index (PMI) data

  • EU, flash figures for euro area inflation

  • France, Q3 GDP and provisional CPI data

  • Germany, monthly unemployment data

  • India, quarterly GDP

  • Italy, Q3 GDP

  • Microsoft AGM (held online)

  • Monthly economic briefing from the UK and the British Retail Consortium

  • United States, monthly consumer confidence figures

  • Results: easyJet EF

Wednesday

  • Euro zone, France, Germany, Italy, United Kingdom, United States: IHS / Markit manufacturing PMI data

  • Germany, retail sales figures

  • Mexico, central bank quarterly report on inflation and growth forecasts

  • OECD Economic Outlook

  • UK, British Retail Consortium monthly store price index and national house price data

  • US Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book, Providing Commentary on Current Economic Conditions

  • Results: Royal Bank of Canada EF

Thursday

  • Brazil, GDP Q3

  • EU, industrial producer prices and unemployment figures

  • General Council of the European Central Bank meets in Frankfurt

  • Italy, monthly unemployment figures

  • United Kingdom, Third Quarter Household Finances Review

  • Results: Toronto-Dominion Bank EF

Friday

  • Brazil, industrial production figures

  • Canada, monthly unemployment figures

  • China, euro zone, France, Germany, Italy, United Kingdom, United States: PMI data for the Caixin and IHS / Markit services sector

  • EU retail sales figures

  • France, industrial production index

  • UK, Office for National Statistics figures for UK business profitability

  • United States, monthly unemployment and non-farm payroll figures

  • Results: Aurubis EF

Global events

Finally, here’s a look at other events and milestones this week.

On Monday

  • Cyber ​​Monday, so called because online retailers are bracing for a deluge of orders on the busiest day of the year as Christmas approaches

  • Iran’s talks with six world powers to revive 2015 nuclear deal set to resume in Vienna

  • UK, British Fashion Awards ceremony at the Royal Albert Hall in London

  • In the United States, the trial of Ghislaine Maxwell, the former partner and girlfriend of Jeffrey Epstein, is due to open in New York

Tuesday

  • Barbados, a former British colony becomes a republic, ending the Queen’s role as constitutional monarch, held since the island became independent in the 1960s.

  • Scotland, feast of St. Andrew

  • United States, Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs to hear testimony from Fed Chairman Jay Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the Cares Act

Wednesday

  • First day of meteorological winter in the northern hemisphere

  • India takes over G20 presidency for 2022

  • Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries “Protecting Policyholders in Insurance Regulation”.

  • World AIDS Day marked by the UN

Thursday

  • UK, by-election for Old Bexley and Sidcup, following the death of James Brokenshire, who had been the Tory MP for the constituency since 2010

  • United Kingdom, Turner Prize for Art announced at the Herbert Art Gallery & Museum, Coventry – UK City of Culture for 2021.

Friday

  • UK Economist Michael Saunders and External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee delivers a speech at an event hosted by the Bank of England, “The Outlook for Inflation and Monetary Policy”

  • United States, self-imposed deadline for Congress to continue funding government operations or face a partial shutdown that would be a political embarrassment for Democrats under President Joe Biden

Saturday

  • Gambia, presidential election

  • Germany, annual Stollenfest, celebrating the traditional Christmas baking dish, starts in Dresden

  • Only the total solar eclipse of the year – and the last total solar eclipse until 2023 – will be visible from Antarctica

  • SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launches Dragon cargo refueling mission to the International Space Station in the United States

Sunday

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